New Map Points

Since the Global Warming: Early Warning Signs map was originally released in November 1999, the picture of how global warming can affect us has become increasingly clear. By now it is very apparent that a warming climate could have substantial and direct impacts on the health of our ecosystems, food and water sources, and on humans, especially children and the elderly. It is well understood that these impacts will occur around the globe and will disproportionately affect the poorest members of our global community.

We have undertaken an update of the map (winter 2003) to reflect our growing knowledge of the impacts of global warming. For this update, we have focused on many of the regions for which we had little data in 1999. Below is a list of the new map points. These are listed by event type.

Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather

The map highlights places that have recently experienced record warmth in regions with a century-long warming trend (1901-1996). Frequent and severe heat waves lead to increases in heat-related illness and death, especially in urban areas and among the elderly, the young, the ill, and the poor.

90. Southern India - Heat wave, May 2002. In the state of Andhra Pradesh temperatures rose to 120°F (49°C), resulting in the highest one-week death toll on record (NCDC, 2002a). This heat wave came in the context of a long-term warming trend in Asia in general. India, including southern India, has experienced a warming trend at a rate of 1°F (0.6°C) per century (IPCC, 2001b; NCDC, 1999).

91. Nepal - High rate of temperature rise. Since the mid-1970s the average air temperature measured at 49 stations has risen by 1.8°F (1°C), with high elevation sites warming the most (Shrestha et al., 1999). This is twice as fast as the 1°F (0.6°C) average warming for the mid-latitudinal Northern Hemisphere (24 to 40°N) over the same time period, and illustrates the high sensitivity of mountain regions to climate change.

92. Chiclayo, Peru - Large increase in average minimum temperatures. Average minimum temperatures along Peru’s north coast increased 3.5°F (2°C) from the 1960s to 2000 (SENAMHI, 2001). The temperature in the high plateau region in extreme southeastern Peru has also risen 3.5°F (2°C), from an average of 48°F (9°C) in the 1960s to 52°F (11°C) in 2001 (Inter-Press Service, 2001). Northwestern South America has warmed by 0.8-1.4°F (0.5-0.8 °C) in the last decade of the 20th century (IPCC, 2001b).

93. Taiwan - Average temperature increase. The average temperature for the island has risen 1.8-2.5°F (1-1.4°C) in the last 100 years. The average temperature for 2000 was the warmest on record (Hsu and Chen, 2002).

94. Afghanistan - Warmest winter on record, 2001. Arid Central Asia, which includes Afghanistan, experienced a warming of 0.8-3.6°F (1-2°C) during the 20th century (IPCC, 1998)(WMO, 2002b).

95. Tibet - Warmest decade in 1,000 years. Ice core records from the Dasuopu Glacier indicate that the last decade and last 50 years have been the warmest in 1,000 years (Thompson et al., 2000). Meteorological records for the Tibetan Plateau show that annual temperatures increased 0.4°F (0.16°C) per decade and winter temperatures increased 0.6°F (0.32°C) per decade from 1955 to 1996 (Liu and Chen, 2000).

96. Mongolia - Warmest century of the past millennium. A 1,738-year tree-ring record from remote alpine forests in the Tarvagatay Mountains indicates that 20th century temperatures in this region are the warmest of the last millennium. Tree growth during 1980-1999 was the highest of any 20-year period on record, and 8 of the 10 highest growth years occurred since 1950. The 20th century warming has been observed in tree-ring reconstructions of temperature from widespread regions of Eurasia, including sites in the Polar Urals, Yakutia, and the Taymir Peninsula, Russia (D’Arrigo, 2001). The average annual temperature in Mongolia has increased by about 1.3°F (0.7°C) over the past 50 years (IPCC, 2001b).

97. Southeast Europe and Middle East - Widespread heat wave, July-August 2000. Temperatures reached as high as 111°F (43.8°C) in locations across Turkey, Greece, Romania, Italy, and Bulgaria. In Bulgaria, 100-year records for daily maximum temperature were broken at more than 75% of the observing stations on July 5th. For Armenia, 2000 was the hottest summer of the century. Jordan reported the longest stretch of summer heat in its 77-year record (NCDC, 2000; WMO, 2000; WMO, 2001). Continental Europe warmed 1.4°F (0.8°C) during the past century, with the last decade being the warmest on record (IPCC, 2001b).

98. Denmark and Germany - Warmest October on record, 2001. In Germany temperatures were as much as 7°F (4°C) above average (WMO, 2002a). The record-breaking temperatures occurred in the context of a warming trend of 1.4°F (0.8°C) over continental Europe during the past century (IPCC, 2001b).

99. Central England - Warmest October on record, 2001. Over the 20th century Central England temperature has warmed by about 1°F (0.5°C). Four of the five warmest years in the 343-year record occurred in the last decade (Hulme, 1999)(WMO, 2002a).

100. Australia - Warmest April on record, 2002. This occurred in the context of an average annual temperature increase of 0.9-1.8°F (0.5-1.0°C) per decade over the past century (Collins, 2002; Reuters 2002). There has also been an increase in warm days and a decrease in cold winter days (IPCC, 2001b).

101. Tropical Andes (Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and northernmost Chile) - Increase in average annual temperature. Average annual temperature has increased by about 0.18°F (0.1°C) per decade since 1939. The rate of warming has doubled in the last 40 years, and more than tripled in the last 25 years, to about 0.6°F (0.33°C) per decade (Vuille and Bradley, 2000).

Spreading disease

Warmer temperatures allow mosquitoes that transmit diseases such as malaria and dengue fever to extend their ranges and increase both their biting rate and their ability to infect humans. The map highlights locations of mosquito-borne disease outbreaks in previously unexposed highland communities where temperatures have risen during the past century, and other indicators of health impacts.

102. North America - Genetic adaptation to global warming in mosquito. Ecologists have identified the first genetic adaptation to global warming in the North American mosquito Wyeomyia smithii. Modern mosquitoes wait nine days more than their ancestors did 30 years ago before they begin their winter dormancy, with warmer autumns being the most likely cause (Bradshaw and Holzapfel, 2001). Higher temperatures, enhancing mosquito survival rates, population growth and biting rates, can increase the risk of disease transmission (Gubler, et al., 2001).

103. Bangladesh - Link between stronger El Niño events and cholera prevalence. Researchers found a robust relationship between progressively stronger El Niño events and cholera prevalence, spanning a 70-year period from 1893-1940 and 1980-2001 (Rodo et al. 2002). There has been a marked intensification of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon since the 1980s, which is not fully explained by the known shifts in the Pacific basin temperature regime that began in the mid-1970s. Findings by Rodo et al. are consistent with model projections of El Niño intensification under global warming conditions. The authors make a strong case for the climate-health link by providing evidence for biological sensitivity to climate, meteorological evidence of climate change, and evidence of epidemiological change with global warming. The study likely represents the first piece of evidence that warming trends over the last century are affecting human disease (Patz, 2002).

Earlier spring arrival

Spring now arrives earlier in many parts of the world. Evidence of this comes from earlier thaw dates for rivers and lakes; earlier dates for plant blooming and leafing; and earlier animal egg-laying, spawning and migration. An earlier spring may disrupt animal migrations, alter competitive balances among species, and cause other unforeseen problems.

104. Tornionjoki River, Finland - Earlier ice break-up. Spring ice breakup now comes about 7 days earlier compared to a century ago. Thirty-eight of 39 records of ice cover from throughout the Northern Hemisphere show a trend toward earlier spring ice breakup and later winter freezing between 1846 and 1995 (Magnuson et al., 2000). This shift corresponds with surface air temperature measurements showing the largest rates of warming since 1976 over the mid- and high latitude continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere (IPCC, 2001a).

105. Lake Baikal, Russia - Shorter freezing period. Winter freezing is about 11 days later and spring ice breakup is about 5 days earlier compared to a century ago (Magnuson et al., 2000). Some regions of Siberia have warmed by as much as 2.5°F (more than 1.4°C) in just 25 years (IPCC, 2001a).

106. The Netherlands - Earlier flight peak of moths. Between 1975 and 1996 the flight peak of small moths shifted to a date 11.6 days earlier (Ellis et al., 1997). Warmer temperatures promote the earlier appearance of insects and earlier peak flight times.

107. Hungary - Earlier flowering dates. Flowering dates of the locust tree occurred 3-8 days earlier during the period 1983-1994 compared to 1851-1930. The study indicates that a rise in temperature of 1.8°F (1°C) causes an advanced flowering by 7 days (Walkovsky, 1998).

108. Europe - Change in timing of spring and autumn events. A study of European plants from 1959 to 1993 shows that spring events (such as flowering) have advanced by about 6 days and autumn events (such as leaf coloring) have been delayed by about 5 days (Menzel and Fabian, 1999). The plant response occurred during a period of a warming. Annual average temperature over continental Europe has increased 1.4°F (0.8°C) over the past century (IPCC, 2001b).

109. Colorado - Earlier emergence from hibernation. Marmots are emerging from hibernation on average 23 days earlier than 23 years ago. This coincides with an increase in average May temperatures of about 1.8°F (1°C) over the same time period (Inouye et al., 2000).

110. Southeast Arizona - Earlier egg-laying. Mexican jays are laying eggs 10 days earlier than in 1971. The earlier breeding coincides with a nearly 5°F (2.8°C) increase in average nighttime temperatures from 1971 to 1998 (Brown et al., 1999).

111. Europe - Earlier growing season. A study of the timing of leaf unfolding for four tree species shows that from 1969 to 1998 the beginning of the growing season has advanced by 8 days. The earlier leaf unfolding corresponds with increasing early spring temperatures over the last 30 years. The greatest warming occurred in Portugal, where average air temperatures in early spring (February to March) increased by nearly 1.1°F (0.6°C) per decade, and the beginning of the growing season has advanced by about 14 days since 1969 (Chmielewski and Rötzer, 2001).

112. Turku, Finland - Longer growing season. The growing season has lengthened by over 10 days over the last century. Throughout the Nordic region the start of the growing season has become progressively earlier by between 4 and 12 days (Carter, 1998).

113. England - Earlier first flowering date. One of the most comprehensive studies of plant species in Britain revealed that the average first flowering date of 385 British plant species has advanced by 4.5 days during the past decade compared with the previous four decades: 16% of species flowered significantly earlier in the 1990s than previously, with an average advancement of 15 days in a decade. These data reveal the strongest biological signal yet of climatic change. Flowering is especially sensitive to the temperature in the previous month, and spring-flowering species are most responsive (Fitter and Fitter, 2002).

Plant and animal range shifts and population changes

Plants and animals generally react to consistently warmer temperatures by moving to higher latitudes and elevations. Recent studies reveal that some species have already started to shift their ranges, consistent with warming trends. Many populations and species may become more vulnerable to declining numbers or extinction if warming occurs faster than they can respond or if human development presents barriers to their migration.

114. Alaska - Changing vegetation patterns. Comparison of photographs taken in 1948-50 to those taken in 1999-2000 of the area between the Brooks Range and the Arctic coast show an increase in shrub abundance in tundra areas, and an increase in the extent and density of spruce forest along the treeline (Sturm et al., 2001). The increased vegetation growth is attributed to increasing air temperatures in Alaska, on average 1.8°F (1°C) per decade over the last three decades (Alaska Regional Assessment Group, 1999).

115. Western Hudson Bay, Canada - Stressed Polar Bears. Decreased weight in adult polar bears and a decline in birthrate since the early 1980s has been attributed to the earlier spring breakup of sea ice. Rising spring temperatures have shortened the spring hunting season by two weeks over the last two decades (Stirling et al., 1999).

116. Banks Island, Canada - Expanded Ranges. The Inuit now regularly see species common much further south that previously were never seen on the island, such as robins and barn swallows. Thunder and lightning, never before recorded in Inuit oral history, have also been reported (Ashford and Castleden, 2001).

117. Argentine Islands - Antarctic flowering plants changes. The populations of two native Antarctic flowering plants increased rapidly between 1964 and 1990, coincident with the strong regional warming over the Antarctic Peninsula. The Antarctic pearlwort population increased 5-fold while the Antarctic hairgrass increased 25-fold. The unusually rapid increases are attributed to warmer summer temperatures and/or a longer growing season, which enhance the plant’s ability to reproduce (Fowbert and Smith, 1994).

118. United Kingdom - Birds extend northern ranges. A comparison of the breeding distributions of birds for two time periods, 1968-72 and 1988-91, showed that the northern margins for many species had moved northwards by an average of about 12 miles (19 km) (Thomas and Lennon, 1999). The range shift occurred during a period when central England’s temperature warmed by about 0.9°F (0.5°C) over the last century, and the 10-year period 1988-1997 was the warmest such period in the record (Hulme, 1999).

Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal flooding

Warmer temperatures increase melting of mountain glaciers, increase ocean heat content, and cause ocean water to expand. Largely as a result of these effects, global sea level has risen 4 to 10 inches (10-25 cm) over the past 100 years. With additional warming, sea level is projected to rise from half a foot to 3 feet (15-92 cm) more during the next 100 years. On average, 50 to 100 feet (15-30 meters) of beach are lost for every foot (0.3 meters) of sea-level rise. Local land subsidence (sinking) and/or uplift due to geologic forces and coastal development will also affect the rate of coastal land loss.

119. Chokoria Sundarbans, Bangladesh - Flooded mangroves. Rising ocean levels have flooded about 18,500 acres (7,500 hectares) of mangrove forest during the past three decades (Huq et al., 1999). Global sea-level rise is aggravated by substantial deltaic subsidence in the area with rates as high as 0.22 inches (5.5 mm) per year (Huq et al., 1995).

120. China - Rising waters and temperature. The average rate of sea-level rise was 0.09 +/- 0.04 inches/yr (2.3 +/- 0.9 mm/yr) over the last 30 years. Global sea-level rise was aggravated locally by subsidence of up to 2 inches/year (5 cm/year) for some regions due to earthquakes and groundwater withdrawal. Also, ocean temperatures off the China coast have risen in the last 100 years, especially since the 1960s (Han, Hou and Wu, 1995).

121. World Ocean - Worldwide ocean warming. The world ocean has experienced a net warming of 0.11°F (0.06°C) from the sea surface to a depth of 10,000 feet (3000 m) over the past 35-45 years. More than half of the increase in heat content has occurred in the upper 1000 feet (300 m), which has warmed by 0.56°F (0.31°C). Warming is occurring in all ocean basins and at much deeper depths than previously thought (Levitus et al., 2000). These findings lend support to the hypothesis that the oceans are taking up excess heat as the atmosphere warms, and would account for the apparent discrepancy in the magnitude of the observed atmospheric warming as compared to climate model predictions.

122. Southern Ocean - Strong warming trend. Measurements from data recorders in the Southern Ocean waters around Antarctica show a 0.3°F (0.17°C) rise in ocean temperatures between the 1950s and the 1980s (Gille, 2002).

123. New Zealand - Ocean warming. The oceans around New Zealand have been warming over the past decade at a rate not seen since the 1930s. Over the last century the average ocean temperatures around New Zealand increased by about 1.8°F (1°C), slightly more than the global average. Despite 20 years of cooling from the 1970s through the early 1990s - due to longer and stronger El Niño events affecting the regional ocean temperatures - New Zealand’s ocean temperature increase over the 20th century is consistent with the global average upward trend. Sea level along the country’s shoreline has been rising accordingly by an average of 0.04-0.08 inches (1-2 mm) per year (NIWA, 2002).

Coral reef bleaching

Reefs in 32 countries experienced dramatic bleaching in 1997-98. Bleaching results from the loss of microscopic algae that both color and nourish living corals. Water that is warmer than normal by only 2 to 3°F (1.1-1.6°C) has been linked to bleaching. Other factors that contribute to coral reef bleaching include nutrient and sediment runoff, pollution, coastal development, dynamiting of reefs, and natural storm damage.

124. Fiji - Coral reef bleaching, 2000. A new wave of coral bleaching events has been observed during the southern summer in Fiji and on many other South Pacific atolls (WWF South Pacific Programme, 2000). Satellite measurements by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association documented unusually high temperatures across much of the Pacific (NOAA- ORA/OSDPD Coral Reef Team, 2000). The 1990s has seen several major bleaching events. Repeated and prolonged bleaching episodes - expected as tropical water temperatures warm with climate change - eventually kill corals and cause a decline in associated marine species.

125. Galapagos, Ecuador - Coral reef bleaching, March/April 2002. Sea-surface temperatures rose above 81°F (27.5 ºC) several times, causing repeated coral bleaching events (NOAA-NESDIS, 2002). Repeated and prolonged bleaching episodes - expected as tropical water temperatures warm with climate change - eventually kill corals and cause a decline in associated marine species.

Glaciers melting

Over the past 150 years, the majority of mountain glaciers monitored have been shrinking. Many glaciers at lower latitudes are now disappearing, and scientists predict that, under some plausible warming scenarios, the majority of glaciers will be gone by the year 2100. As glaciers continue to shrink, summer water flows will drop sharply, disrupting an important source of water for irrigation and power in many areas that rely on mountain watersheds.

126. Bhutan - Melting glaciers- swelling lakes. As Himalayan glaciers melt glacial lakes are swelling and in danger of catastrophic flooding. Average glacial retreat in Bhutan is 100-130 feet (30-40 m) per year (ICIMOD, 2002). Temperatures in the high Himalayas have risen 1.8°F (1°C) since the mid 1970s (Shrestha et al., 1999).

127. India - Himalayan glaciers retreating. Glaciers in the Himalayas are retreating at an average rate of 50 feet (15 m) per year (Geological Survey of India, 1999), consistent with the rapid warming recorded at Himalayan climate stations since the 1970s. Winter stream flow for the Baspa glacier basin has increased 75% since 1966 and local winter temperatures have warmed, suggesting increased glacier melting in winter (Kulkarini et al., 2002).

128. Argentina - Receding glaciers. Glaciers in Patagonia have receded by an average of almost a mile (1.5 km) over the last 13 years (Wessels et al., 2001; Painter, 2001). There has been an increase in maximum, minimum, and average daily temperatures of more than 1.8°F (1°C) over the past century in southern Patagonia, east of the Andes (IPCC, 1998).

129. Heard Island (Australia) - Rising temperatures; Retreating glaciers. Since 1947 the island's 34 glaciers have decreased by 11% in area and 12% in volume, with half the loss occurring in the 1980s. Air temperature has risen 1.3° F (0.7°C) between 1947 and 2001 (Pockely, 2001; Reuters, 2001a).

130. Mt. Everest - Melting glacier. The Khumbu Glacier, popular climbing route to the summit of Mt. Everest, has retreated over 3 miles (5 km) since 1953 (UNEP, 2002). The Himalayan region overall has warmed by about 1.8°F (1°C) since the 1970s (Shrestha et al., 1999).

131. Kyrgyzstan - Disappearing glaciers. During 1959-1988, 1,081 glaciers in the Pamir-Altai disappeared. Temperatures in the mountains of Kyrgyztan have increased by 0.9-2.7° F (0.5-1.5°C) since the 1950s (UNEP, 2000).

132. Venezuela - Disappearing glaciers. Of six glaciers in the Venezuelan Andes in 1972, only 2 remain, and scientists predict that these will be gone within the next 10 years (OSU, 2001). Glaciers in the mountains of Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru show similar rapid rates of retreat (Schubert, 1999). Temperature records in other regions of the Andes show a significant warming of about 0.6° F (0.33°C) per decade since the mid-1970s (Vuille and Bradley, 2000).

133. Mount Kilmanjaro, Tanzania - Ice projected to disappear by 2020. 82% of Kilimanjaro’s ice has disappeared since 1912, with about one-third melting in just the last dozen years. At this rate, all of the ice will be gone in about 15 years (OSU, 2001). Scientists hypothesize that less snow on the mountain during the rainy season decreases the surface reflectiveness, leading to higher rates of absorption of heat and increased ice melt (Hardy, 2002).

134. Rwenzori Mountains, Uganda - Disappearing glaciers. Since the 1990s, glacier area has decreased by about 75% (Kaser, 1999). The continent of Africa warmed by 0.9° F (0.5°C) during the past century, and the five warmest years in Africa have all occurred since 1988 (IPCC, 2001b).

135. Canadian Rockies - Disappearing glaciers. The Athabasca Glacier has retreated one-third of a mile (0.5 km) in the last 60 years and has thinned dramatically since the 1950s-60s (State of the Canadian Cryosphere, 2002). In British Columbia the Wedgemont Glacier has retreated hundreds of meters since 1979, as the climate has warmed at a rate of 2°F (1.1°C) per century, twice the global average (BC Ministry of Water, Land, and Air Protection, 2002).

136. Alaska - Increasing rate of retreat. A study of 67 glaciers shows that between the mid-1950s and mid-1990s the glaciers thinned by an average of about 1.6 feet (0.5 m) per year. Repeat measurements on 28 of those glaciers show that from the mid-1990s to 2000-2001 the rate of thinning had increased to nearly 6 feet (1.8 m) per year (Arendt et al., 2002). Alaska has experienced a rapid warming since the 1960s. Annual average temperatures have warmed up to 1.8°F (1°C) per decade over the last three decades, and winter warming has been as high as 3°F (2°C) per decade (Alaska Regional Assessment Group, 1999).

137. Greenland - Rapid thinning of ice sheet. Rapid thinning of the Greenland ice sheet in coastal areas, especially of outlet glaciers, has been measured in two studies during the 1990s (Krabill et al., 2000). The coastal land ice loss is attributed to a combination of warming-driven factors, including increased melting during warmer summers, high snow accumulation rates feeding the outlet glaciers, and increased rates of melting at the bottom of glaciers due to ocean warming (Rignot and Thomas, 2002).

Arctic and Antarctic warming

Parts of Canada, Alaska, Siberia, and the Antarctic have been experiencing warming well above the global average for the past few decades. This trend fits climate model predictions for a world with increasing levels of greenhouse gases. Melting permafrost is forcing the reconstruction of roads, airports, and buildings and is increasing erosion and the frequency of landslides. Reduced sea ice and ice shelves, changes in snowfall, and pest infestations have affected native plants and animals that provide food and resources to many people.

138. Arctic Ocean - Decreasing ice thickness. Ice thickness at 29 stations, as measured by submarine sonar, decreased by an average of more than 4 feet (1.2 m) compared to 20 to 40 years ago, representing a 40% reduction in ice volume (Rothrock et al., 1999). From 1966 to 1995, annual temperatures in the Arctic increased by as much as 1.8°F (1°C) per decade, and spring temperatures increased by as much as 3.6°F (2°C) per decade (Serreze et al., 2000). Temperature reconstructions from tree rings, ice cores, and other long-term records indicate that the 20th century was the warmest century in the Arctic since 1600 (Overpeck et al., 1997).

139. Arctic Ocean - Decreasing ice cover. Satellite measurements indicate the area of perennial ice cover has decreased by about 7% per decade since 1978 (Johannessen et al., 1999).

140. Antarctica - Decreasing ice thickness. The permanent ice cover of nine lakes on Signey Island has decreased by about 45% since the 1950s. Average summer air temperature has warmed by 1.8°F (1°C) (Quayle et al., 2002).

141. Antarctic Peninsula - Collapsing ice shelf, January-February 2002. The northern section of the Larsen B ice shelf, an area of 1,250 square miles (3,250 km²), disintegrated in a period of 35 days. This was the largest collapse event of the last 30 years, bringing the total loss of ice extent from seven ice shelves to 6,760 square miles (17,500 km²) since 1974. The ice retreat is attributed to the region’s strong warming trend - 4.5°F (2.5°C) in the last 50 years (NSIDC, 2002).

142. Siberia - Melting permafrost. Large expanses of tundra permafrost are melting. In some regions the rate of thawing of the upper ground is nearly 8 inches (20 cm) per year. Thawing permafrost has already damaged 300 buildings in the cities of Norilsk and Yakutsk (Goldman, 2002). In Yakutsk, the average temperature of the permanently frozen ground has warmed by 2.7 °F (1.5°C) during the past 30 years (Romanovsky, 2000; Rozell, 2001).

Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding

A warmer climate will bring an increase in precipitation worldwide, especially during winter and in mid- to high latitudes, according to climate model projections. In addition, more precipitation is expected to fall in downpours and heavy snowstorms leading to increased flooding and damages. The area of the U.S. affected by extreme rainfall has increased significantly since 1910. Heavy rainfalls have also increased in Japan, the former Soviet Union, China, and Australia. As climate change increases the risk of flooding, human changes in land use and land cover can also contribute to the growing risk of flooding.

143. Pampas region, Argentina/Uruguay - Worst flooding on record, August to October 2001. Nearly 8 million acres (3.2 million hectares) of land in the Pampas region were flooded after 3 months of high rainfall (WMO, 2002a). Mean annual precipitation in the humid Pampa increased by 35% in the last half of the 20th century (IPCC, 1998).

144. Southeastern Norway - Wettest year on record, 2000. The year 2000 was the wettest year since records began in 1895 (WMO, 2001). Precipitation in northern Europe has increased 10-40% in the last century (IPCC, 2001b).

145. Buenos Aires, Argentina - Heaviest rains in 100 years, May 2000. 13.5 inches (34.2 cm) of rain, more than 4 times the average monthly rainfall, fell in just 5 days (NOAA Office of Global Programs, 2000). Northeastern Argentina is exhibiting a long-term trend of increasing precipitation (IPCC, 2001b).

146. Venezuela - Heaviest rainfall in 100 years, December 1999. The heaviest rainfall in 100 years caused massive landslides and flooding that killed approximately 30,000 people. Total December rainfall in Maiquetia, near Caracas, was almost 4 feet (1.2 m), more than 5 times the previous December record. The high death toll was attributed to population growth in vulnerable areas and forest clearing on steep hill slopes (Wieczorek et al., 2001; USGS, 2000).

Droughts and fires

As the climate heats up, droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe in some locations. Sustained drought makes wildfires more likely, and crops and trees more vulnerable to pest infestations and disease. Generally, local land use and land cover changes can exacerbate the climate change-driven increase in drought risk. For example, in the tropics, "slash-and-burn" land clearing practices can trigger large fires during extended droughts.

147. Iran - Desiccated wetlands, 2001. Ninety percent of wetlands have dried up after 2 years of extreme drought (WMO, 2002b). Much of South West Asia has experienced a prolonged three-year drought that is unusual in its magnitude. Out of 102 years of record, 1999, 2000, and 2001 rank as the fifth, third, and seventh driest on record. 1999-2000 was the driest winter on record (NCDC, 2002b).

148. Pakistan - Longest drought on record, 1999-2001. The prolonged three-year drought, which covers much of South West Asia, has affected 2.2 million people and 16 million livestock in Pakistan (WMO, 2002b).

149. Tajikistan - Lowest rainfall in 75 years, 2001. 2001 marked the third consecutive year of drought, which has destroyed half the wheat crop (UN, 2000; UN, 2001).

150. Korea - Worst drought in 100 years of record. It coincided with an average annual temperature increase in Asia’s temperate region, which includes Korea, by more than 1.8°F (1°C) over the past century. The warming has been most pronounced since 1970 (IPCC, 1998)(AFP, 2001; NCDC, 2001; CNN, 2001).

151. Kenya - Worst drought in 60 years, 2001. Over four million people were affected by a severely reduced harvest, weakened livestock, and poor sanitary conditions (USAID, 2001).

152. Samos Island, Greece - Fires, July 2000. Fires due to dry conditions and record-breaking heat consumed one-fifth of the island. Temperatures reached up to 104°F (40°C) in some areas (WMO, 2000). Averaged over the continent, Europe has warmed 1.4°F (0.8°C) during the past century (IPCC, 2001b).

153. Argentina - Fire outbreak. 3.7 million acres (1.5 million hectares) burned in La Pampa province, sustained by record temperatures and persistent drought (NOAA-Office of Global Programs, 2001). Annual average temperature in Argentina has increased by nearly 1.8°F (1°C) over the last century (Hulme and Sheard, 1999).

154. Lake Chad - Disappearing lake. The surface area of the lake has decreased from 9,650 square miles (25,000 km²) in 1963 to 521 (1,350 km²) today. Modeling studies indicate the severe reduction results from a combination of reduced rainfall and increased demand for water for agricultural irrigation and other human needs (Coe and Foley, 2001).

155. China - Disappearing lakes, 2001. More than half of the 4,000 lakes in the Qinghai province are disappearing due to drought. The severity of the impact is exacerbated by overpumping of aquifers (Reuters, 2001b). Annual average temperature in China has increased during the past century, with pronounced warming since 1980 (NCDC, 1999). Most of the warming has been in northern areas, including Qinghai Province, and in the winter.

156. South Africa - Burning shores, January 2000. One of the driest Decembers on record and temperatures over 104°F (40°C) fueled extensive fires along the coast in the Western Cape Province. The intensity of the fires was exacerbated by the presence of invasive vegetation species, some of which give off 300% more heat when burned compared to natural vegetation (IFFN, 2000).

References:

AFP, 2001. Worst drought in a century hits Korean Peninsula. Agence France-Presse (AFP), June 10, 2001.

Alaska Regional Assessment Group, 1999. Preparing for a changing climate; The potential consequences of climate variability and change: Alaska. Center for Global Change and Arctic System Research, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK.

Arendt, A.A., K. A. Echelmeyer, W. D. Harrison, C. S. Lingle, V. B. Valentine, 2002. Rapid wastage of Alaska glaciers and their contribution to rising sea level. Science, 297: 382-386

BC Ministry of Water, Land, and Air Protection, 2002. Indicators of climate change for British Columbia 2002. Victoria, BC.

Bradshaw, W.E. and C.M. Holzapfel, 2001. Genetic shift in photoperiodic response correlated to global warming. Proceedings of the National Academies of Science http://www.pnas.org, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.241391498 (see also: http://www.nature.com/nsu/nsu_pf/011108/011108-6.html).

Brown, J.L., S. Li, and N. Bhagabati, 1999. Long-term trend toward earlier breeding in an American bird: a response to global warming? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 96: 5565-5569.

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