National Assessment Process

-- Susanne C. Moser, Ph.D. (Union of Concerned Scientists) --

The National Assessment represents a major, landmark nationwide analysis of the meaning and possible implications of global change to local communities, places, businesses and economic activities. The assessment serves as an important wake-up call to examine our vulnerability to climate variability and change. It asks what information decision-makers at all levels will require to minimize the negative changes and make the most of the positive changes that may come as the warming proceeds. It calls on Americans to examine long-term decisions about land- and resource use, infrastructure placement, and so on, in terms of climate change and what adaptations may be needed in the face of change. The National Assessment includes all regions in the United States and five sectors including coastal areas, forests, water resources, agriculture, and human health.

BACKGROUND ON THE ASSESSMENT

In the US Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), the United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) was mandated with the responsibility to periodically undertake a scientific assessment of the potential consequences of global change on the United States. The Act requires the federal interagency Committee for Global Change Research of the National Science and Technology Council to "prepare and submit to the President and the Congress an assessment which --

• integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings;


• analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity;


• analyzes current trends in global change, both human-inducted and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years".

Besides informing Congress and other US decision-makers, this assessment also serves as an important input into the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 

The assessment is a peer-reviewed synthesis of the best available knowledge, whose review process is similar to that used by the IPCC. In addition, this assessment included input by stakeholders, including federal, state, and local agencies, business, civic and environmental groups, as part of its steering committees, review teams, and cooperators. This inclusive process has greatly increased the accessibility, usefulness, and relevance of the assessment. 

OVERVIEW OF THE ASSESSMENT COMPONENTS AND PROCESS

The National Assessment (NA) includes in-depth analyses of sectors particularly sensitive to changes in climate: agriculture, coastal areas and marine resources, forests, public health, and water. Each assessment is sponsored by a federal agency, co-chaired by experts in the field, and conducted by a team of scientists chosen by the co-chairs. In addition, the NA examines the potential impacts of climate change on every region of the United States. The twenty regional assessments have been collapsed into eight mega-regions for ease of overview in the synthesis document.

The NA has been conducted over more than three years in an iterative, participatory fashion that involved both bottom-up (regional, sectoral assessments) and top-down (national synthesis) components. 
 
WHO IS BEHIND THE ASSESSMENT?
 
The NA Synthesis report was compiled and written by a team of 14 highly respected, scientific experts including Tom Karl (NCDC, Co-chair of the NA Synthesis Team), Jerry Melillo (Ecosystems Center Marine Biological Laboratory, Co-chair of the NA Synthesis Team), Eric Barron (Penn State University), David Schimel (NCAR), Linda Joyce (USDA), and others.  The entire process has been overseen by a Blue Ribbon Panel which include two Nobel Prize winners (Burton Richter and Mario Molina). 

The conduct of the NA Synthesis Team is clearly prescribed under the Federal Advisory Committee Act. As a Federal Advisory Committee, all its meetings are open to the public, and all its documents are public documents. Any comments from interested individuals on reports the Committee produces must be addressed in writing.

The regional and sectoral assessments upon which the synthesis document is largely based directly involved several hundred scientists nationwide. Each of these underlying assessments was chaired by one or two regional or sectoral experts, carried out by an expert assessment team selected by these leaders, and overseen by a steering committee. Each assessment was informed by the results of scoping workshops that involved representatives from academia, non-governmental organizations, business, and government. Leaders of the NA estimate that a total of 3000-5000 individuals have contributed to the entire endeavor. 
 
The Synthesis Team is not under guidance from the administration. While the final synthesis documents will (as per mandate through the US Global Change Research Act of 1990) take on the character of a report by the administration to Congress, the administration and its Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) did not impose restrictions on the NA Synthesis Team’s decisions about the content of the report or on how it dealt with reviewers’ comments.
 
THE SYNTHESIS DOCUMENTS
 
The synthesis documents capture the broad scope of the Assessment. The synthesis consists of two documents -- a shorter Overview Document and a longer Foundation Document. Thus, while the synthesis is much more general and in some cases could differ in tone from regional and sectoral assessments, it does not fundamentally diverge from the scientific findings produced in those efforts.
 
Reports from the scoping workshops that launched most regional assessments have already been released. The final reports from the regional and sectoral assessments are being released between 1999 and 2001. The synthesis report summarizes the findings of those reports that are finished and available.  Thus, the scientific material that went into the synthesis includes new assessment material in different phases of completion, and in some instances relies on previously published research rather than on new scientific analyses. The synthesis report thus is a snapshot of the state of knowledge at this stage in the assessment process, rather than as the end of the assessment process. It is one in a series of documents that will provide guidance on climate change and variability to US policy- and decision-makers at all levels. 
 
THE REVIEW PROCESS 

The synthesis of the assessments was conducted to the highest scientific standards in order to assure its credibility and transparency. The production of regional and sectoral assessments was designed to be broadly inclusive in order to yield accessible and relevant results. 

Importantly, the synthesis documents were submitted to a strict multi-stage review process, involving hundreds of experts, the public, and federal agencies, all under the auspices of a panel of widely respected scientific experts. The regional and sectoral assessment teams were integral to the review process of the synthesis document and their comments were fully incorporated into the final product.  The regional and sectoral assessment teams were encouraged to submit their products to a similarly strict review process, but the NA leadership did not control that aspect of the assessments. In effect, the synthesis report is politically uncoupled from the underlying reports. 

ADDITIONAL WEB RESOURCES

Background on the Assessment

The Congressional mandate, the process, the components of the assessment

• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/
  overviewAboutDocument.htm
  
• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/
  overviewAboutProcess.htm
  
• More on the regions:
  
• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/background/
  regions.htm
  
• You can search the NACC newsletter (ACCLIMATIONS) by region
  to find out more about a particular region at:
  
• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/
  newsletter/regions.htm
  
• More on the sectors:
  
• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/nacc/background/
  sectors.htm
  
• Also search the newsletter for additional information on sectors at:
  
• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/
  newsletter/default.htm
  
• More on the national synthesis:
  
• Overview Report: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/
  nationalassessment/overview.htm
  
• Foundation Report: http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/
  nationalassessment/
  foundation.htm
  
• More on stakeholder involvement:
  
• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/
  newsletter/1999.04/MARA.html
  
• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/
  newsletter/1998.10/NGreatPlns.html
  
• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/
  newsletter/1999.10/UKcip.html
  
• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/
  newsletter/2000.06/selby.html
  
  

Scenarios:

Basic background information on the climate and socioeconomic
scenarios used in the assessment:

• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/
  overviewAboutScenarios.htm
  
• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/
  newsletter/1999.08/socio.html(socioeconomic)
  
• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/
  newsletter/1999.02/SocEc.html(socioeconomic)

More information on the emission scenarios:

• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/
  newsletter/1999.12/model.html
  (scenarios)
  
• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/
  newsletter/1999.06/climate.html
  (climate model review)
  
• http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/Library/nationalassessment/
  newsletter/1999.02/Climate.html
  (climate scenarios)