Global Warming Effects Around the World

Northeastern Siberia

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Temperature (Air)

Freshwater (Land ice)

Dr. Katey Walter lights a pond leaking methane ablaze in Northeast Siberia

Northeastern Siberia is home to many of Russia's "thaw lakes." These lakes can release large stores of methane as global warming melts the frozen ground beneath them (known as yedoma). As shown in the photo above, this methane can rise to the surface of these lakes and is highly flammable.1

Key Facts

Studies show that thaw lakes in northeastern Siberia are a large source of methane—a potent heat-trapping gas. If global warming expands the lakes, methane emissions are likely to rise—further accelerating climate change.2

  • From 1954 to 2003, average annual air temperatures in Siberia rose by 3.6-5.4° F (2-3° C), and average winter temperatures by around 7.2° F (4° C).3,4
  • Some 90 percent of all lakes in Russia's permafrost zone (where the ground is at or below freezing) are underlain by yedoma—a thick, carbon-rich permafrost composed of ancient wind-blown dust and debris.2,5,6,7
  • In Siberia, the amount of carbon in yedoma is equivalent to around 68 percent of the carbon already in Earth's atmosphere,8,7,9 and thaw lakes are currently releasing nearly 4 million metric tonnes of methane a year.2,10


Siberia is a vast Eurasian region that is part of the Russian Federation. Its 5 million square miles (13 million square kilometers) account for some 77 percent of the federation's total area, and 10 percent of Earth's land area.11,12 Though most of the land in Siberia is taigathat is, boreal forest—the northernmost fringe is tundra.11 The latter refers to land at higher latitudes that is permanently frozen (permafrost) and mostly treeless.11,12

During just the past half-century, annual air temperatures in Siberia rose 3.6-5.4° F (2-3° C), and winter temperatures increased at about double that rate.3,4 Even if we reduce our heat-trapping emissions, Siberia could warm by another 5.4-9° F (3-5° C) by the end of the century —and 5.4-12.6° F (3-7° C) in winter.3,4

North Siberia, on the border of the Laptev Sea, near the Arctic Ocean, is home to many thaw lakes, known as thermokarst.2 These relatively shallow bodies of water usually form when permafrost thaws and the ground collapses, creating a depression.2,3 The vast majority of lakes in Russia's permafrost zones are thaw lakes.2 And, unlike lakes in lower latitudes, most of those are underlain with yedoma, which contains some 500 billion metric tonnes (500 petagrams) of carbon. 2,3,5,6,7,8 Yedoma is typically 2-5 percent carbon—some 10-30 times the portion usually found in deep, non-permafrost mineral soils.7

Satellite images show that the total lake area expanded by some 12 percent from 1973 to 1998 in Siberia's continuous permafrost zones (regions where permafrost occurs throughout), and that the number of lakes rose by 4 percent.3,4 Around that same time, the region experienced about a 58 percent increase in methane emissions as a result of melting permafrost associated with lake expansion.2

Recent research shows that these thaw lakes emit on average 3.8 million metric tonnes (3.8 teragrams) of methane each year. That amount represents an increase of 10-63 percent over earlier estimates of methane emissions from northern wetlands.2 Methane emissions can fluctuate greatly because thawing yedoma is such a wild card.

Part of a Larger Pattern

Permafrost is particularly sensitive to changes in air temperature, making it especially vulnerable to climate change.13 Degrading permafrost has significant implications for global warming, because it releases heat-trapping gases that have been stored in soil—often for thousands of years.13

Thawing permafrost can release carbon dioxide and methane, depending on moisture conditions and whether the permafrost has contact with air.13,14,15 Scientists think permafrost degradation causes a thickening of the active layer that thaws in the summer and freezes in the winter, spurring the release of methane and carbon dioxide.

Methane is some 25 times more effective in trapping heat in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide over a hundred-year period.17 Even though methane remains in the atmosphere for only about 10 to 15 years, it converts to carbon dioxide, which can trap heat for a very long time. In fact, about 20 percent of the CO2 can linger for nearly a thousand years.17

Though thaw lakes in northern Siberia emit both carbon dioxide and methane,16 estimating future emissions—and their impact on global warming—is difficult, because the lakes release most of these gases through ebullition (bubbling).2 That's why some scientists refer to these lakes as a "global warming wild card."2,8,17,18

What the Future Holds

Degradation of permafrost is likely to mean that thaw lakes temporarily expand.13 These lakes may then disappear as they drain into the permafrost—a phenomenon already observed in Siberia, especially in lower-latitude regions with discontinuous or isolated patches of permafrost.19 Erosion is expected to occur during this process, spurring further thawing of the yedoma, and accelerating the release of heat-trapping emissions.2,19

If Siberia's yedoma lakes were to thaw completely, they could release nearly 50 billion metric tonnes (50 petagrams) of methane into the atmosphere, catalyzing a huge amplified warming or feedback effect.2,8,19 Permafrost and western Siberian peat bogs in the Northern Hemisphere store some 950 billion metric tonnes (950 petagrams) of carbon—1.3 times the amount of carbon already in Earth's atmosphere.7

The fate of northeastern Siberia's yedoma lakes—and the methane frozen under them—depends on the choices we make today. Acting quickly to make deep cuts in our heat-trapping emissions will help safeguard the lakes against a complete thaw, thereby keeping carbon stored in the yedoma underneath.



  1. Photograph courtesy of the University of Alaska, Fairbanks- Sergey Zimov. Cherskii, Republic of Sakha, Russian Federation, March 2007.
  2. Walter, K.M, S.A. Zimov, J.P. Chanton, D. Verbyla, and F.S. Chapin III. 2006. Methane bubbling from Siberian thaw lakes as a positive feedback to global warming. Nature 443:71-75.
  3. International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska at Fairbanks. 2005. Arctic climate impact assessment: Impacts of a warming arctic, executive summary. Cambridge University Press.
  4. International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska at Fairbanks. 2005. Arctic tundra and polar desert ecosystems. In: Arctic climate impact assessment: Impacts of a warming arctic. Cambridge University Press.
  5. Zimov, S.A., Y.V. Voropaev, I.P. Semiletov, S.P. Davidov, S.F. Prosiannikov, F.S. Chapin III, M.C. Chapin, S. Trumbore, and S. Tyler. 1997. North Siberian lakes: A methane source fuelled by Pleistocene carbon. Science 277:800-802.
  6. Romanovsky, N.N., H.W. Hubberten, A.V. Gavrilov, V.E. Tumskoy, G.S. Tipenko, M.N. Grigoriev, and C. Siegert. 2002. Thermokarst and land-ocean interactions, Laptev Sea region. Russian Permafrost Periglacial Processes 11:137-152.
  7. Zimov, S.A., E.A.G. Schuur, and F.S. Chapin III. 2006. Permafrost and the global carbon budget. Science 312:1612-1613.
  8. United Nations Environment Programme. 2008. Methane from the Arctic: Global warming wildcard. Emerging challenges report. Nairobi, Kenya. Online at yearbook/ 2008/ report/ Emerging.pdf. Accessed August 11, 2010.
  9. Percentage is calculated from estimates in Zimov et al. (2006). Yedoma contains some 500 billion metric tonnes (500 petagrams) of carbon, and the atmosphere contains 730 billion metric tonnes (730 petagrams) of carbon.
  10. Walker, Gabrielle. 2007. A world melting from the top down. Nature 446:718-721.
  11. Central Intelligence Agency. Russia. The world factbook. Washington, DC. Online at library/ publications/ the-world-factbook/ geos/ countrytemplate_rs.html. Accessed August 7, 2010.
  12. Encyclopedia Brittanica. Siberia. Online at EBchecked/ topic/ 542569/ Siberia. Accessed August 8,2010.
  13. Nelson, F.E., A.H. Lachenbruch, M.-K Woo, E.A. Koster, T.E. Osterkamp, M.K. Gavrilova, and G. Cheng. 1993. Permafrost and changing climate. In: Proceedings of the sixth international conference on permafrost, vol. 2. Wushan, Guangzhou: South China University of Technology Press, pp. 987-1005.
  14. Lawrence, D.M., and A.G. Slater. 2005. A projection of severe near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century. Geophysical Research Letters 32:1-5.
  15. Jorgenson, M.T., C.H. Racine, J.C. Walters, and T.E. Osterkamp. 2001. Permafrost degradation and ecological changes associated with a warming climate in central Alaska. Climatic Change 48:551-579.
  16. Zimov, S.A., Y.V. Voropaev, I.P. Semiletov, S.P. Davidov, S.F. Prosiannikov, F.S. Chapin III, M.C. Chapin, S. Trumbore, and S. Tyler. 1997. North Siberian lakes: A methane source fuelled by Pleistocene carbon. Science 277:800-802.
  17. Forster, P., V. Ramaswamy, P. Artaxo, T. Berntsen, R. Betts, D.W. Fahey, J. Haywood, J. Lean, D.C. Lowe, G. Myhre, J. Nganga, R. Prinn, G. Raga, M. Schulz, and R. Van Dorland. 2007. Changes in atmospheric constituents and in radiative forcing. In: Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Edited by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, and H.L. Miller. Cambridge University Press, table 2.14.
  18. Mikaloff-Fletcher, S.E., P.P. Tans, L.M. Bruhwiler, J.B. Miller, and M. Heimann. 2004. CH4 source estimated from atmospheric observations of CH4 and its 13C/12C isotopic ratios: 1. Inverse modelling of source processes. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18:1-17.
  19. Walter, K.M., L.C. Smith, and F.S. Chapin III. 2007. Methane bubbling from northern lakes: Present and future contributions to the global methane budget. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 365(1856):1657-1676.
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